Peace Plans Ready for Presented to Moscow Within Days, States Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.